The Kurds and SIIC were in the last govt, but that did not enable them to pass the laws reruqied to increase Kurdish territory or carve out a new Shia enclave in the South. I don't see their chances improving with even weaker numbers. Even assuming Maliki makes them promises to keep his PM job, I don't see how he could possibly deliver. (Or does this renewed nationalism exist only in my imagination?) This may be one issue where gridlock is in Iraq's long term best interest. That article on Iraq in The Economist today is certainly discouragingly negative. Hard to know how seriously to take it, though. For about the last year The Economist has started trying to track its readers preferences instead of actual reporting. (Eg, its refusal to report the AGW crackup) But we shall see.
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